Natural rubber futures rebounded in a narrow range after bottoming out and reached a new low

天然橡胶期货在经验近一个月的横盘格局后，于上周(3月6日)再一次承压下行，RU2305合约突破12000元/吨关口并连创新低，3月13日夜盘最低跌至11785点。随着部分空头止盈平仓，沪胶探底后窄幅反弹，3月14日RU2305合约主流价值围绕在11950-12000区间窄幅振动，日盘收于11955点，较上一买卖日持平。

After experiencing a one-month horizontal pattern, the natural rubber futures fell again under pressure last week (March 6). The RU2305 contract broke through the 12000 yuan/ton threshold and hit a new low in a row. The lowest price fell to 11785 on March 13. With the closing of some short positions and the closing of positions, the Shanghai rubber market rebounded in a narrow range after the bottom. On March 14, the mainstream value of RU2305 contract vibrated in a narrow range around the 11950-12000 range, and the market closed at 11955, which was flat compared with the previous trading day.

日前正值全世界天然橡胶低产季，胶水产量少，原料收购价值坚挺;下游轮胎企业装置运转负荷较高，且天然橡胶价值持续贴水合成橡胶价钱，利于轮胎工厂对天然橡胶采购条件;国内多部门及各位子政府、车企公布汽车促销、补贴政策，利好末端市场，利于为胶市托底。而国外宏观气氛偏空，出口订单陆续概况仍需关注。国家内部天然橡胶去库拐点未现，3月下旬起新一轮割胶周期又将打开，天然橡胶市场缺乏有效有利驱动，短期行情仍将偏弱运转，不排除再一次探低可能。

A few days ago, it was in the low production season of natural rubber all over the world. The output of glue was small, and the value of raw material acquisition was strong; Downstream tire enterprises have higher operating load of devices, and the value of natural rubber continues to be lower than the price of synthetic rubber, which is conducive to the purchase conditions of natural rubber for tire factories; Many domestic departments and various sub-governments and auto enterprises have announced auto promotion and subsidy policies to benefit the end market and lay a foundation for the rubber market. However, the foreign macro atmosphere is relatively empty, and the continuous overview of export orders still needs attention. The inflection point of natural rubber destocking in the country has not yet emerged, and a new round of rubber cutting cycle will be opened from late March. The natural rubber market lacks effective and favorable driving force, and the short-term market will still be weak, so it is not ruled out that the possibility of further lowering will be explored.

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