2022.5.6PVC spot and forward market analysis

Analysis of PVC futures market

The opening, highest, lowest, settlement price of V2209 stock contract are separately 8745,8793,8675 and 8734, holding shares with 341438. Compared with settlement price in yesterday of 8674, increasing 60. and the daily stock trading volume is 577011 hands.therefore the fixed assets is 3 billion 261 million，outflowing 21 million 580 thousand.

Analysis of PVC spot market

The PVC market mainstream trading price in domestic continuing increasing slightly. It has a good performance in spot market, but there’s a difference in price adjustment range among the regions. From the comparison of valuation, the low-end price in North China increased by 20 yuan / ton, that in East China increased by 30 yuan / ton, that in South China increased by 10-20 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China increased by 100-150 yuan / ton, and that in central and southwest China remained stable.First, the ex factory price of upstream PVC manufacturers continued to rise, with an increase of 50-100 yuan / ton. Secondly, consumption areas continued to rise, but the increase slowed down in some areas.The futures prices of major PVC contracts have increased by a large margin, with a small increase in the afternoon. After the futures prices rise, the pricing has no advantage. The quotations of traders in various regions are mostly based on the buy it now price. On the whole, the supply of low-priced goods in the spot market has decreased, and the quotation quoted by the difference between spot price and futures price has been continued in some regions. Ethylene process PVC also rose, but the quotation of ethylene process PVC enterprises is not much, and most of them do not do that. The traders can negotiate with the actual order. In terms of export quotation, today's export price of calcium carbide PVC is FOB US $1220-1230 / ton (China's main port). The transaction is slightly inferior to yesterday.

Forecast of PVC forward and spot market

1. Forward market:

Pvc09 contract stock positions decreased slightly, short positions of traded stocks increased, and short positions also increased. The technical level shows that the daily trading volume of stocks decreases. For example, the opening of the third rail of brin belt tends to narrow. At present, after the futures price is close to the middle track position, it will go down further. First of all, from the perspective of the overall plasticization plate, the performance of PVC is still weaker than that of polyolefin PP and PE. However, at present, the supply and demand of PVC is good.

2. Spot market:

From the perspective of PVC cost: the price of calcium carbide began to rise sharply, and the continuous rise of the factory price of calcium carbide caused the receiving price of chlor alkali enterprises to rise. Therefore, the cost of PVC by calcium carbide method is high, and the price of crude oil has shown an upward trend recently. Therefore, based on the current cost, the cost of PVC futures and spot markets will also move up. From the perspective of supply and demand: PVC supply: maintenance enterprises increased in May, especially in the middle and late ten days, and the supply decreased. In terms of demand, it will also improve with the improvement of the epidemic situation in various regions. In terms of macro policies, policies may be issued in the later stage in order to achieve economic growth. Therefore, on the whole, PVC futures and spot markets are better.

The domestic PVC index:

According to Toodudu's data, on May 6, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 8897.24, up 17.55, with a increasing range of 0.198%. The spot index of PVC by ethylene method was 9286.39, up 0.73, with a increasing range of 0.008%. The calcium carbide method index rose, the ethylene method index rose, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method index was 389.15.